[ETSkywarnings] Special Weather Statement

[sn at ds.bz]

...attention: unprecedented deepening drought over the region...
for graphic displays on the internet go to

www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

...drought statement for east tennessee...extreme southwest
virginia...and cherokee and clay counties of extreme southwest
north carolina...

introduction...

[new] d4 (exceptional) drought conditions have been assigned to
the extreme southern cumberland plateau and part of southeast tennessee.
this includes the chattanooga metropolitan area.

d3 (extreme) drought conditions exist over all of southeast
tennessee, the southern two-thirds of the cumberland plateau, and then
eastward nearly all the central tennessee valley of tennessee. this
includes the great smoky mountains and all the mountains from there
south along the tennessee-north carolina line. it also covers cherokee
and clay counties in north carolina.

d2 (severe) drought conditions exist over the northern cumberland
plateau, and the rest of east tennessee including far northeast tennessee.
this also includes all of extreme southwest virginia.

precipitation status...

rainfall at individual points is not always an accurate reflection
of an area`s precipitation. rainfall over large areas is a more
realistic representation.

recent rainfall has been hit and miss at best. precipitation over the
past several months has been likewise much below normal. the worst hit
areas are in southeast tennessee along the alabama and georgia border
areas. following are some rainfall percentages through june 15, 2007,
by basin:

lake nametotalnormal%normal

guntersville10.8427.2539
nickajack 8.8626.2334
chickamauga10.6826.2941
watts bar14.5725.1258
ft. loud/tel12.6724.1353
hiwassee14.6028.2152
nottely17.6226.7666
chatuge14.1628.7949
melton hill13.7324.2457
norris14.8022.3166
fontana16.8729.4457
douglas13.8422.2662
cherokee12.6521.1160
boone12.2121.6256
watauga13.7921.9763
s. holston14.6321.0470

it is apparent that rainfall deficits have worsened over the last
few months. also, from the above list, you can see the rainfall
shortages are worse further south, but nonetheless bad up north.

soil moisture...

as a result of this rainfall deficit, soil moisture is at near record
low levels. visual evidence of this can be seen in farm ponds and normally
filled sinkholes which are empty or very low. even after what would
normally be a beneficial rainfall, topsoil returns to a dry state
very quickly. the deep water table is very much reduced and this is
apparent in extremely low to record low stream flows.

current stream flows...

the current volume of water in streams reflects the depth of the
water table. current stream flows in the region range from much
below normal to near record low across the northern cumberland
plateau, the extreme southwest tip of virginia, and northeast
tennessee. they range from near record low to record low levels
levels on the southern cumberland plateau, southeast tennessee, the
blue ridge mountains along the tennessee/north carolina border, and
in cherokee and clay counties in north carolina. streams and rivers
are simply the ground water table appearing on the surface.

the flow on the tennessee river at chattanooga is at near record to
record low levels for this time of year. flood control space in the
system above chattanooga is approximately 178 percent of normal,
meaning there is about 78% more room for flood water storage in the
tennessee river system above chattanooga than is normal for the time
period.

flooding...

some minor flooding has occurred with recent rains but no serious
flooding is expected in the near future. remember that even in
extreme droughts flooding can occur locally if enough rain falls
in a short time period, especially in urban areas. even during the
infamous dust bowl years of the 1930s, floods occurred when too
much rain fell in one spot.

expected rainfall and temperatures...

for the remainder of june, the temperature outlook is for a bit warmer
than normal, with about average rainfall. rainfall in june is usually
hit and miss due to thunderstorms.

for the summer (june-august), the outlook is for warmer than normal,
with average rainfall. again, summertime rainfall can be quite
variable, with some places getting a lot and next door getting
almost nothing.

outlooks...

persistence of drought is usually the best bet when predicting
drought behavior. at this point, we would need a few tropical
storms moving over the region with prolonged moderate rain (with no
flooding) to bring us up to normal. still, the deep water table would
not recover as quickly and so we really need a very wet summer, fall,
and winter, to get us out of the long term drought. this is not
likely to happen at this point. flooding is actually not helpful at all
because that water does not enter the water table, but instead runs off
into stream channels and ends up downstream.

cautions...

use less water! blowing or sweeping off driveways will save water.
turning off water when brushing teeth and shaving, taking short
showers and not baths will also save water. if you have to water
outdoor plants, use soaker hoses after sunset, or spot water them to
decrease evaporation. every little bit, totaled up among all of us,
will make a big difference. most people can find other effective ways
to save water and still have a comfortable lifestyle.

further statements will be issued as more information becomes available.

for more information or for media interviews contact:

brian boyd
senior service hydrologist
national weather service
5974 commerce blvd.
morristown, tn 37814
423-586-1964 (media only)
423-586-2296 (all other calls)
email: brian.boyd at noaa.gov
website: www.srh.noaa.gov/mrx




Affected Counties:
In North Carolina: Cherokee, Clay.  In Tennessee: Anderson, Bledsoe, Blount, Bradley, Campbell, Carter, Claiborne, Cocke, Grainger, Greene, Hamblen, Hamilton, Hancock, Hawkins, Jefferson, Johnson, Knox, Loudon, Marion, McMinn, Meigs, Monroe, Morgan, Polk, Rhea, Roane, Scott, Sequatchie, Sevier, Sullivan, Unicoi, Union, Washington.  In Virginia: Bristol City, Lee, Norton City, Russell, Scott, Washington, Wise.



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